{"id":536,"date":"2025-03-06T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-06T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/?p=536"},"modified":"2025-03-07T19:15:23","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T19:15:23","slug":"why-milk-is-making-a-comeback-and-why-thats-a-problem-explained-in-8-charts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/06\/why-milk-is-making-a-comeback-and-why-thats-a-problem-explained-in-8-charts\/","title":{"rendered":"Why milk is making a comeback, and why that\u2019s a problem, explained in 8 charts"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Cows

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The past few years have violated many of my assumptions about human progress<\/a>. Twenty-year-olds are going MAGA<\/a>. More and more Americans say<\/a> that women should return to their \u201ctraditional\u201d roles in society. For some reason, we have decided to gamble with bringing back once-eradicated deadly diseases<\/a>. <\/p>\n

And now, add to the list: Cow\u2019s milk is back. Sort of.<\/p>\n

Last year, US dairy producers sold about 0.8 percent<\/a> more milk than in 2023, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) statistics, the first year-over-year increase since 2009<\/a>, when milk prices were historically low<\/a>. That may not sound like much, but it\u2019s a big deal<\/a> for the dairy industry, which has seen a sustained drop in both per capita<\/a> and total US milk consumption over the last few decades. Raw milk, which has not been pasteurized to kill pathogens, has seen double-digit<\/a> growth, a concerning trend given its potential to spread<\/a> life-threatening infections, though it still makes up a very small share of overall milk sales. <\/p>\n

\"Chart<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, non-dairy milks \u2014 the kind made from soybeans, oats, almonds, and other plants \u2014 have stumbled, declining by about 5 percent in both dollar and unit sales over approximately the last year, according to data shared with Vox by NielsenIQ and data reported elsewhere<\/a> from the market research firm Circana.<\/p>\n

A small uptick in cow\u2019s milk intake is, obviously, not tantamount to the calamities that have been unleashed over the last six weeks in American politics. But it does likely sprout, at least in part, from the same vibe shift that\u2019s given us butter-churning, homestead-tending tradwives<\/a>, an unscientific turn<\/a> against plant-based foods, and a movement to destroy<\/a> public trust in vaccines.<\/p>\n

After achieving ubiquity in the 2010s and early 2020s, plant-based milks may have lost their cool, nonconformist quality<\/a> \u2014 much like how, after more than a decade of liberal cultural supremacy, embracing authoritarian revanchism now feels like countercultural rebellion.  <\/p>\n

The problem is that cow\u2019s milk is not, unfortunately, just a harmless dietary preference \u2014 it\u2019s land-intensive, water-intensive, climate-warming<\/a>, and incredibly cruel to cows<\/a>. Dairy cows contribute more than 10 percent<\/a> of US methane emissions, a super-potent greenhouse gas, and their land use, while not nearly as great as that of beef farming, is still high, occupying land that could otherwise be freed up<\/a> for carbon-sequestering ecosystems. To mitigate climate change, our dairy consumption needs to go down<\/a>, not up. <\/p>\n

\"Chart<\/p>\n

It\u2019s too early to tell whether the growth in milk sales is a temporary blip or a genuine turning point; Dotsie Bausch, executive director of Switch4Good, a group that advocates for moving away from dairy consumption, told me she\u2019s optimistic it\u2019s the former. And all this comes amid another important shift: America\u2019s top coffee chains, including Starbucks<\/a>, Dunkin\u2019, Dutch Bros, Tim Hortons, and Scooter\u2019s<\/a> \u2014 very large buyers of milk \u2014 have all in recent months dropped their extra charges for adding plant-based milks to drinks, a change that animal rights groups, led by Switch4Good, had demanded for years. <\/p>\n

That change makes it anywhere from 50 cents to $2<\/a> less expensive to choose plant milks over cow\u2019s milk, and will likely nudge some customers to choose more planet-friendly plant-based options. Still, while economic incentives do matter for milk consumption, as we\u2019re increasingly seeing, they\u2019re not the whole story. <\/p>\n

Why dairy milk is becoming more popular<\/h2>\n

If you really think about it, it\u2019s weird that we drink dairy milk \u2014 the milk that cows, like all mammals, make for their babies. <\/p>\n

There\u2019s no compelling reason to think humans need to drink milk after infancy, much less the milk of another species. Nevertheless, thanks to many years of \u201cpseudo-scientific theories that exalted drinking-milk to permanent and unquestioned superfood status,\u201d as culinary historian Anne Mendelson put it in her book Spoiled: The Myth of Milk as Superfood<\/em>, cow\u2019s milk consumption became practically compulsory in the US, peaking in 1945<\/a> at 45 gallons per person, or about two cups per day. And that\u2019s only counting straight cow\u2019s milk, not other dairy products made from it like cheese, butter, or ice cream, which added a lot more \u2014 ice cream consumption peaked in 1946, at 23 pounds per person. <\/p>\n

After World War II, fluid milk intake plummeted, falling<\/a> to less than half a cup per person per day on average in 2019. It\u2019s important to keep these trends in perspective, however: More than 90 percent<\/a> of US households still buy cow\u2019s milk, while less than half<\/a> buy plant-based milk; plant milk sales are still way lower than sales of cow\u2019s milk. And even as cow\u2019s milk in fluid form became less popular, overall dairy intake in the US has only increased<\/a> since the 1970s, driven by growing consumption of cheese, butter, and yogurt. <\/p>\n

\"Chart\"Chart<\/p>\n

So why might drinking cow\u2019s milk be coming back? The most persuasive hypotheses boil down to three things: price, perception, and protein. <\/p>\n

The first one is pretty obvious: Consumers are angry about inflation, struggling with high grocery bills<\/a>, and switching to lower-cost options. Conventional dairy milk \u2014 the kind that makes up more than 90 percent of the cow\u2019s milk market and comes in clear, hard-plastic jugs with brightly colored caps \u2014 is generally cheaper than any plant-based milk you can get. The cheap soy milk<\/a> I buy is still more than twice the cost by volume of the cheapest cow\u2019s milk at my grocery store. <\/p>\n

If you know anything about how resource-intensive cow\u2019s milk is to produce, its low cost might seem counterintuitive. Part of that is because the costs are externalized elsewhere: Cows have been bred<\/a> to produce immense volumes of milk over the last century, which has brought down the cost while taking a heavy toll on their welfare. Most milk today comes from mega dairies<\/a>, which benefit from economies of scale by confining thousands or even tens of thousands of cows in one place, but these operations are known for spreading pollution and foul odors to nearby communities. <\/p>\n

\"chart<\/p>\n

Dairy is also much higher in greenhouse emissions than plant-based foods with comparable nutrition, and much more water-intensive, contributing to water scarcity<\/a> in arid Western states like California, the nation\u2019s top dairy producer. But the dairy industry, as well as those that grow crops to feed cows, gets to use all that water at low cost, a classic \u201ctragedy of the commons,\u201d UC Davis agricultural economist Richard Sexton told me.<\/p>\n

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Soy milk, while far less resource-intensive than dairy, has higher manufacturing costs, and hasn\u2019t benefited from the decades of US government-subsidized R&D that have lowered the cost of cow\u2019s milk, nor from the dairy industry\u2019s scale efficiencies. The cost of the soy used to make soy milk is also shaped by competition with other, much larger, uses of soybeans, Sexton said. Most soy grown in the US is fed to farmed animals, while another chunk is used<\/a> to make subsidized<\/a> biofuels. <\/p>\n

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Why soy milk rules<\/h2>\n

Soy milk, which has been consumed in East Asia for centuries, is almost too good to be true \u2014 but at just 1 percent of the US milk market, it doesn\u2019t get enough credit. It\u2019s packed with protein and (assuming you get a fortified variety) essential nutrients, low in saturated fat, and much lower in sugar than milk.<\/p>\n

The federal government\u2019s Dietary Guidelines for Americans recognize fortified soy milk as an appropriate substitute for cow\u2019s milk. I think it\u2019s an even better choice, kinder to both the planet and to cows. If you haven\u2019t had it before, soy milk might taste different from what you\u2019re used to, but it has a satisfying, full-bodied texture and nutty flavor. And don\u2019t worry about whatever you may have heard about the supposed dangers of soy \u2014 it\u2019s been debunked<\/a>. It\u2019s literally a bean, and we can all use more of that<\/a> in our diets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

But look closer at the data, and the price explanation for dairy milk\u2019s rebound becomes a lot more complicated. Organic milk sales grew by 7 percent by volume from 2023 to 2024 \u2014 about 19 times faster than conventional milk did over the same period. And organic cow\u2019s milk is significantly pricier than conventional; often, it\u2019s more expensive than plant-based milks. Lactose-free milk, which is also costlier than regular milk, saw huge gains, too, with many new buyers switching from less-expensive plant-based milks. <\/p>\n

One factor might simply be taste and feel, Chris Costagli, vice president for food insights at NielsenIQ, told me. Consumers seem to be trying to incorporate more fats in their diets: Rich, full-bodied whole milk, which has been rising<\/a> in popularity as low-fat milks decline, may be gaining appeal compared to almond milk, the most popular plant milk, which is runny and low in calories.<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s the hazier but crucial element of consumer perceptions \u2014 in other words, vibes. <\/p>\n

Americans are increasingly skeptical of so-called ultra-processed foods, an ill-defined, unrigorous concept that I covered<\/a> back in December. Most plant-based milks fall into that category, putting them on the wrong side of today\u2019s culture war, which has swung toward the regressive and anti-modern. <\/p>\n

Consumers find the ingredient lists of cow\u2019s milk \u2014 which is often just \u201cmilk\u201d and added vitamins \u2014 simpler and easier to understand than those of plant milks, Costagli said, and they also might feel that they\u2019re getting a better value. \u201cThe first ingredient on dairy milk is milk. The first ingredient on plant-based is water,\u201d he said. That\u2019s true \u2014 but cow\u2019s milk is also overwhelmingly comprised of water. A more detailed ingredient list might look like this: Water, milk fat, casein, whey, lactose, vitamins, minerals, enzymes, estrogen, progesterone, Insulin-like Growth Factor 1. Novel foods suffer from the perception of being \u201cunnatural\u201d and mechanized regardless of their actual health impacts.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m reminded of what 20th-century philosopher Walter Benjamin wrote in his essay<\/a> \u201cThe Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical Reproduction,\u201d arguing that in an era of mass production, objects lose their \u201caura,\u201d or uniqueness and authenticity. Cow\u2019s milk, particularly the kind that\u2019s marketed as unadulterated and close to the source, like organic, appeals to a sense of lost aura by promising to reconnect consumers with something ancient and primal \u2014 a living, breathing animal, the very opposite of a machine. <\/p>\n

But this fatally misunderstands the nature of modern dairy farming, which one could reasonably define as the process of turning an animal into a milk-making machine. Organic dairy does have some standards that are better for animal welfare, including a requirement<\/a> for cows to have access to pasture for at least 120 days per year, although organic dairy has been gamed and industrialized<\/a> to such an extent that it often resembles conventional mega dairies. <\/p>\n

More fundamentally, though, there\u2019s no guarantee that organic dairy cows are treated humanely<\/a> because both organic farms and conventional mega dairies rely on the same business model: Putting cows through repeated, taxing cycles of insemination, pregnancy, and lactation, separating them from their calves so that humans can take their milk, and then sending them to slaughter at a young age when their health and productivity decline. Organic dairy is not meaningfully better<\/a> for the environment, either. <\/p>\n

Got soy milk?<\/h2>\n

There\u2019s one more factor we need to consider to understand what\u2019s happening in the cow\u2019s milk market: America\u2019s obsession with protein<\/a>. Most types of plant milk, including oat, almond, and coconut, are significantly lower in protein than cow\u2019s milk. That might explain why sales of soy milk \u2014 which is higher in protein as a share of calories than either whole, reduced fat, or low-fat cow\u2019s milk \u2014 have remained stable<\/a>, while low-protein almond milk has seen the steepest declines. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Some companies have even introduced \u201cultra-filtered\u201d<\/a> cow\u2019s milk that\u2019s higher in protein than regular milk. The Coca-Cola-owned milk brand Fairlife, which has seen massive growth<\/a> in recent years thanks to the popularity of its high-protein products, was recently the subject<\/a> of an undercover investigation<\/a> by the animal advocacy group Animal Rescue Mission. The group found appalling animal abuse at two Fairlife supplier farms in Arizona, including cows and calves being beaten, dragged, chained, and shot. A 2019 investigation<\/a> found similar abuse at another Fairlife supplier, and Coca-Cola in 2022 settled lawsuits<\/a> alleging that it falsely advertised Fairlife milk as coming from humanely raised cows. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe mistreatment of animals depicted in the recent videos is unacceptable. Effective immediately, our supplier, United Dairymen of Arizona (UDA), has suspended delivery of milk from these facilities to all UDA customers,\u201d Fairlife told Vox in a statement. \u201cWe have zero tolerance for animal abuse. Although we operate as milk processors and do not own farms or cows, we mandate that all our milk suppliers adhere to stringent animal welfare standards, and we expect nothing less.\u201d<\/p>\n

So what kind of milk should <\/em>people drink if they care about nutrition and animal welfare? The perfect milk for most people is made of soybeans. <\/p>\n

Soy milk is not just high-protein, but also lower in saturated fat than any type of cow\u2019s milk except skim, much lower in sugar (make sure you get an unsweetened variety), and even has fiber, which, unlike protein, Americans are actually deficient in<\/a>. If you get a fortified variety, like the leading soy milk brand Silk<\/a>, you also get calcium, vitamin D, and other essential nutrients. <\/p>\n

\"Chart<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re accustomed to cow\u2019s milk, soy might just taste different. Myths about adverse health effects from soy have been debunked<\/a>; unless you have an allergy, there\u2019s no reason to be afraid of it<\/a>. To the contrary, soy is simply a bean, and one of the best sources of protein out there. <\/p>\n

Soy milk is also unequivocally better for the environment than dairy, isn\u2019t made with animal abuse, and as a plus, won\u2019t help start the next pandemic<\/a>. The US federal dietary guidelines recognize fortified soy milk as an appropriate substitute<\/a> for cow\u2019s milk. <\/p>\n

Despite this, it is, strangely, the official policy<\/a> of the US government to promote cow\u2019s milk consumption and protect it from changing consumer preferences \u2014 an outdated vestige of 20th-century agricultural policy that punishes plant-based foods at a time when we most need them. <\/p>\n

Seen in this light, the perceived resurgence of cow\u2019s milk may really just be one more example of the re-entrenchment of the status quo. Although it\u2019s seeing a bit of a renaissance, cow\u2019s milk has never not been mainstream. The truest form of cultural rebellion has always been to simply avoid it. <\/p>\n

And please, whatever you do, don\u2019t drink raw milk<\/a>. <\/p>\n

This story originally appeared in the Processing Meat newsletter. Sign up here!<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The past few years have violated many of my assumptions about human progress. Twenty-year-olds are going MAGA. More and more Americans say that women should return to their \u201ctraditional\u201d roles in society. For some reason, we have decided to gamble with bringing back once-eradicated deadly diseases.  And now, add to the list: Cow\u2019s milk is…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":538,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/536","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=536"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/536\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":548,"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/536\/revisions\/548"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/538"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=536"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/audiomateria.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}